The research article, titled “Determinants of fertility rates in Türkiye: the role of women’s income, human capital, participation in civil society and life expectancy,” was authored by Burhan Durgun and Selman Kızılkaya and published in Discover Social Science and Health. The paper was received on March 27, 2025, and accepted on May 30, 2025, with the DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s44155-025-00244-y.
This study delves into the complex factors influencing fertility rates in Türkiye, an emerging economy characterized by significant structural inequalities and ongoing sociopolitical shifts. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policy intervention. The primary objective of the research is to investigate the long-term determinants of fertility rates in Türkiye, specifically focusing on the roles of:
- Women’s income.
- Women’s human capital.
- Women’s participation in civil society.
- Women’s life expectancy at birth.
The study addresses a notable gap in existing literature by providing an integrated analysis that simultaneously considers these multifaceted roles within the unique Turkish context.
To achieve its objectives, the research utilizes annual data spanning the period from 1990 to 2022. The data on women’s life expectancy at birth, fertility rate, and women’s human capital (defined as the tertiary gross schooling rate) were obtained from the World Bank. Women’s income data, calculated as Gross National Income per capita in PPP-adjusted $ (2017, constant) for women, were derived from UNDP reports. Data for women’s participation in civil society, expressed as an index, were sourced from the V-Dem Project database.
The authors applied advanced econometric methodologies to ensure robust insights into causal relationships and policy implications. These techniques include:
- Fourier ADL cointegration tests: This method is capable of detecting smooth structural changes and long-run relationships in the presence of nonlinearities without requiring precise break dates, which is particularly suitable for macroeconomic time series analysis.
- Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimation: This approach was employed to estimate the long-term coefficients of the relationships between the variables.
- Unit Root Tests: Conventional ADF and Fourier ADF (FADF) unit root tests were used to analyze the stationarity of the variables, accounting for soft breaks.
The key findings of the study reveal several significant insights:
- Women’s Income: A significant nonlinear relationship was identified between women’s income and fertility rates, consistent with the fertility-income Kuznets curve hypothesis. Initially, a 1% increase in women’s income was found to result in a 3.60% increase in the fertility rate. However, this positive effect becomes negative after a certain threshold, specifically once the income level from 2016 was exceeded. This suggests that while higher income can initially empower women in achieving reproductive goals, at higher levels, it introduces economic and lifestyle constraints that deter childbearing.
- Women’s Human Capital: The study found a strong negative correlation between women’s human capital and fertility. A 1% increase in women’s human capital leads to a 0.14% decrease in fertility. This reflects how education empowers women, enhancing their autonomy, providing better employment opportunities, and increasing access to family planning resources, which collectively contribute to delayed marriage and smaller family sizes.
- Women’s Civil Participation: There is a significant negative impact of women’s civil participation on fertility. An increase of one unit in women’s participation in civil society leads to a 0.69% decrease in the fertility rate. This highlights how engagement in formal labor markets and civil roles introduces time and resource constraints that reduce fertility rates.
- Women’s Life Expectancy: Interestingly, the study found no statistically significant direct effect of life expectancy at birth on fertility rates in Türkiye. While life expectancy is a crucial indicator of human development and can indirectly influence fertility by allowing women to delay childbirth and focus on education, its direct effect in the Turkish context appears overshadowed by other factors.
In conclusion, the research underscores the intricate interplay of economic, educational, and sociocultural factors in shaping demographic transitions in Türkiye. It emphasizes the importance of addressing structural barriers to women’s human capital development and fertility reduction. The study provides valuable insights for fostering inclusive and sustainable socioeconomic progress, suggesting that targeted policies promoting women’s education, economic empowerment, and civil liberties are essential for achieving long-term fertility stabilization and advancing gender equality.
Reference: Durgun, B., & Kızılkaya, S. (2025). Determinants of fertility rates in Türkiye: the role of women’s income, human capital, participation in civil society and life expectancy. Discover Social Science and Health, 5, Article 92. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44155-025-00244-y
